Traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait has fallen by another 50% after renewed Houthi threats against ships linked to Saudi Arabia, according to Clarksons Research.
On 25–26 July, an average of 31 vessels per day transited the Bab el-Mandeb. In tonnage terms, traffic was 50% below the second-quarter average. VLCC traffic also fell, from three transits per day in Q2 to just one.
The decline followed the Houthis’ announcement of a naval blockade against Saudi Arabia on 20 July and their claimed attack on two Saudi tankers, including MV Encelia, in the Red Sea.
Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz also remained near record lows. Clarksons recorded an average of just 13 vessel transits per day over the weekend, about 90% below pre-conflict levels. Tonnage dropped by 95%, while only six VLCCs passed through the strait during the past week.
Oil exports from the Persian Gulf have also fallen sharply. Clarksons estimates that exports averaged about 1 million barrels per day over the past week. That compares with 10 million bpd in early July and around 15 million bpd before the conflict. No LNG carriers or very large gas carriers (VLGCs) have transited Hormuz for more than 10 days.
Saudi Arabia is increasingly relying on its Yanbu export terminal on the Red Sea. However, avoiding the Bab el-Mandeb would force ships onto much longer routes. A tanker sailing from Yanbu to China via the Cape of Good Hope would travel about 15,000 nautical miles – more than twice the normal distance.
The disruption has also pushed freight rates higher. Clarksons said average VLCC earnings rose 13% over the past week to $145,000 per day. VLGC spot earnings increased 24% to $172,000 per day. The consultancy estimates that rerouting half of Yanbu’s exports to Asia around Africa would increase global crude tanker tonne-mile demand by about 5%.
